Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.
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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.
Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.
Planetary A-index (Ap): 4
| Planetary K-index (Kp): 0
Solar Wind: 405 km/s at 5.0 protons/cm3, Bz is 3.0 nT
(Nov 20, 2018 at 1516 UT)
What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)
Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.
If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:
Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges
At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:
Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)
Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge
Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011
Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)
Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011
Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?
Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal
The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications
More about Background X-rays
The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.
Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.
If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.
Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 12 - 18 November 2018
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2726 (N05, L=137, class/area Axx/010 on 13 Nov) was inactive and decayed to plage 15 Nov. Region 2727 (N01, L=112, class/area Cao/060 on 18 Nov) showed slight growth, but remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 12-16 Nov and moderate levels on 17-18 Nov.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels, with a isolated periods of unsettled conditions observed early on 12 Nov. Solar wind speeds were elevated 12-13 Nov due to a negative polarity CH HSS. Peak speeds of 638 km/s occurred on 12 Nov at approximately 1936 UTC, and decreased over the course of the week, reaching a minimum of 298 km/s by 17/2326 UTC. 14-17 Nov were unremarkable under a nominal solar wind regime. The solar wind environment underwent a slight enhancement on 18 Nov due to CIR arrival ahead of a negative polarity CH. Total field became enhanced to 8 nT and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT by the end of the day. Wind speeds increased to around 330 km/s and density increased to a peak of 20 particles per cubic cm.
Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.
(Click to see actual size)
Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)
Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:
SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
(Click to see actual size)
What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:
Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC
What is coming
Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:
On 2018 Nov 20 1510Z: Bz: 2.7 nT
Bx: 2.6 nT | By: -4.2 nT | Total: 5.6 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.
This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind
Outlook: (valid from 1230UT, 19 Nov 2018 until 21 Nov 2018)
19 Nov 2018 10.7-cm Flux: 073 / Ap: 006
20 Nov 2018 10.7-cm Flux: 073 / Ap: 007
21 Nov 2018 10.7-cm Flux: 073 / Ap: 012
Solar Flares: Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) Geo-Disturbance: Quiet (A<20 and K<4) Solar Proton Event: Quiet
Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Solar X-ray flux remained below B level. NOAA region 2727 was stable or in decay while rotating towards the West limb. X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level.
Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 November - 15 December 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the forecast period (19 Nov-15 Dec). Region 2727 (N05, L=137) will exit the solar disk on 21 Nov, and pending decay, is due to return on 04 Dec.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at moderate levels 19 Nov-1 Dec. Predominately high levels are likely 2 Dec-13 Dec due to a pair of recurrent CH HSSs. Moderate levels are likely 14-15 Dec as CH HSS influence wanes.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels 19-22 Nov due to a pair of negative polarity CH HSSs. Predominately quiet levels are expected 23-30 Nov under nominal solar wind conditions. Active conditions are expected on 01 Dec due to a SSBC ahead of a recurrent positive polarity CH. G1 (Minor) storming is likely 02 Dec due to the CIR in advance of the HSS of the aforementioned positive polarity CH. Unsettled conditions are expected 03-06 Dec as CH HSS influence wanes. Active conditons are likely 07-08 Dec due to HSS influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH. Mostly unsettled conditions, with a chance of active intervals, is expected 09 Dec as the negative polarity CH HSS influence wanes. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC
Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is Copyright, 2018, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.