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SunSpotWatch.com

Radio Propagation : Space Weather : Sunspot Cycle Information

a live reference resource site for solar and geomagnetic data and images

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Gain the on-air edge: This article explains how the ANTENNA is the key! -> Read this introduction to Antenna Modeling

STEREO 3D

X-ray Conditions (Flares) 5-min.

X-ray Conditions (Flares) 1-min.

Geomagnetic Conditions (Kp)

Satellite Environment Plot:

Main Propagation Menu:

+ Aurora Resources

How-To Articles:

- Is HF Propagation Reciprocal?
- De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and Modeling

Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.

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- Main NW7US Page
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This website is kept alive by Tomas (NW7US), out of "spare change" (which there's not always enough of), and, by the kind, helpful people who visit this website. Would you like to help me keep this site running 24/7? If you are able to help me keep this website up and running, please: help me keep this site running for everyone... click on this donation button:

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Other links of interest:

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Comments? Please use the feedback form. I look forward to hearing your comments.

NW7US Update to CQ Magazine Last Minute Forecast
Updated: 23-Aug-2017 UTC

Day-to-Day Conditions Expected for August 2017

Propagation Index Days	(4)	(3)	(2)	(1)
Above Normal: 1-2,7-11,13-16,24-29	A	A	B	C
High Normal: 3,5-6,12,21,23,30	A	B	C	C-D
Low Normal: 4,17-18,20,22,31	B	C-B	C-D	D-E
Below Normal: 19	C	C-D	D-E	E
Disturbed: No days	C-D	D	E	E

Warnings/Alerts issued
in the last 24 hours, if any:
(Key: NOAA Scales)

[ live aurora display ]
[ auroral power maps ]

[ d-layer conditions ]

[ latest solar images 1 ]
[ latest solar images 2 ]
[ latest solar images 3 ]

[ active solar regions ]
[ current solar region image ]

[ What is a flare and its class? ]

Recent Space Environment Reports:

+ Reports of Solar & Geophysical Activity
+ Solar & Geophysical Activity Summaries

From the Space Environment Center:

Solar X-ray Flux

+ A 3 day plot of 5-minute solar X-ray flux values measured on the GOES 8 and 10 satellites.
+ A 6-hour 1-min Solar X-ray Flux plot

Satellite Environment Plot

[ Proton Flux ] [Electron Flux ]
[ GEOS Hp ] [ Estimated Kp ]

Additional Resources

+ SpaceW.com Aurora Network
+ D-Layer Absorption Conditions/Predictions
+ 160 Meter Propagation Forecast
+ Solar Physics Department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium, the official keepers of sunspot data.

Solar Activity Forecast
The Forecast of Solar Activity as well as Geomagnetic Activity

Probability of Flares and Proton Events
EVENT (Flare/Proton)	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs
M-class	15%	15%
X-class	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities
	Middle latitudes		High latitudes
	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs
Active	01%	01%	01%	01%
Minor Storm	01%	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe Storm	01%	01%	01%	01%

Solar Sunspot Cycle 24 Progress

Solar Cycle 24 Smoothed Sunspot Progress

Solar Cycle 24 Planetary A Index (Ap) Monthly Progress

Do you want the latest solar conditions sent to you as an RSS feed? Click:

You will need a newsreader for RSS/XML.

(Use http://hfradio.org/propsupport/prop.rss as your RSS channel url)

This page was rendered on 23-Aug-17 1522 UTC.
This page was first created in 1998, by Tomas David Hood (NW7US)

Current Sunspot Cycle 24 Activity and Space Weather

[ How you can help this website ]

Sun Spots: 48 as of 08/22/2017 :: 10.7-cm Flux: 90 SFU
(SFU=Solar Flux Units)

Space Weather Overview Graphic from SWPC

30 Minutes of Dazzling Sun! Ultra-high Definition 4k View

An Intimate View of the Sun, Every Day of 2015 (Year 6 of SDO) UHD 4k

Watch Five Very Intense X-class X-ray Flares Erupt, Back-to-back!
(From the largest sunspot region in 20+ years...)

Check out the X2.7 X-ray Flare (May 5 2015) - 'Biggest' of 2015, so far

See highlights of the last five years of the Sun, as seen by SDO

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Latest Solar Images
Click on an image for full-sized view

D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) Global Map

Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.

Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.

Planetary A-index (Ap): 22 | Planetary K-index (Kp): 5
Solar Wind: 477 km/s at 10.0 protons/cm3, Bz is -5.0 nT
(Aug 23, 2017 at 1508 UT)

X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [C1.9][1932Z 08/22] 24h hi [C1.9][1932Z 08/22]

Background X-ray Level, Last Six Days

Aug 22 2017 :: B1.7
Aug 21 2017 :: B2.6
Aug 20 2017 :: B3.3
Aug 19 2017 :: B3.3
Aug 18 2017 :: B1.3
Aug 17 2017 :: A8.3

Check out the current Aurora Oval and activity.

Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.

If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:

Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values With Expected Ranges
YR/MO	Smoothed Sunspot Number Predicted/High/Low			Smoothed 10.7 cm Radio Flux Predicted/High/Low
2017 02		17.1	15.1	78.9	79.9	77.9
2017 03		17.7	13.7	78.3	79.3	77.3
2017 04		18.5	12.5	77.6	79.6	75.6
2017 05		20.9	10.9	77.2	80.2	74.2
2017 06		21.6	11.6	77.2	81.2	73.2
2017 07		23.0	11.0	77.2	81.2	73.2
2017 08		24.2	10.2	77.0	82.0	72.0
2017 09		24.5	10.5	76.9	82.9	70.9
2017 10		25.5	9.5	76.5	83.5	69.5
2017 11		26.5	8.5	76.1	84.1	68.1
2017 12		26.7	8.7	75.9	83.9	67.9
2018 01		27.9	7.9	75.5	84.5	66.5
2018 02		27.5	7.5	74.7	83.7	65.7
2018 03		26.3	6.3	73.7	82.7	64.7
2018 04		25.4	5.4	72.8	81.8	63.8
2018 05		24.5	4.5	72.1	81.1	63.1
2018 06		23.7	3.7	71.3	80.3	62.3
2018 07		22.9	2.9	70.6	79.6	61.6
2018 08		22.2	2.2	69.9	78.9	60.9
2018 09		21.5	1.5	69.2	78.2	60.2
2018 10		20.8	0.8	68.6	77.6	60.0
2018 11		20.1	0.1	68.0	77.0	60.0
2018 12		19.5	0.0	67.4	76.4	60.0

To understand more about the Maximum Usable Frequencies, and related
science, please read the MUF Basics Page.

Global HF Propagation Conditions
Global HF Propagation Conditions for 1500Z on 23 Aug, 2017
High Latitude: Fair-Poor
Middle Latitude: Fair
Low Latitude: Normal

Geomagnetic Latitude Ranges:
High: 60-90 degrees
Middle: 20-60 degrees
Low: 0-20 degrees

At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:

Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)

Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge

Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011

Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)

Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011

Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal

The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications

More about Background X-rays

The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.

Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.

If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.

Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.

Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 14 - 20 August 2017

Solar activity ranged from very low levels to moderate levels over the period. Very low levels were observed on 16-17 Aug, low levels were observed on 14-15 Aug and again from 18-19 Aug, while moderate levels were observed on 20 Aug.

The period began with Region 2671 (N11, L=305, class/area Fkc/410 on 18 Aug) rotating around the east limb. The region was in a growth phase through 18 Aug and rapidly developed from a simple Hax/alpha spot group to an Fkc/beta-gamma group by 17 Aug with an extent reaching 20 heliographic degrees by 20 Aug. Although a magnetically complex spot group, it only managed 11 C-class flares. The largest was a C7/Sf, with an associated Type II (928 km/s) radio sweep, at 19/2155 UTC. Although coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning at 19/2143 UTC, there was no observable indications of an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) in coronagraph imagery. Another region began producing C-class activity on the east limb beginning on 18 Aug. By 20 Aug, the region rotated into view and was numbered 2672 (N05, L=225, class/area Dao/beta on 20 Aug). This region produced an M1 flare (R1-Minor) at 20/0152 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels from 14-16 Aug and again from 18-20 Aug. A decrease to moderate levels was observed on 17 Aug coinciding with the arrival of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The largest flux value of the period was 23,392 pfu observed at 20/1540 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. The period began under the waning influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from near 600 km/s to around 360 km/s by 16 Aug while total field was between 3-5 nT. Early on 16 Aug, total field began to increase to a maximum of 13 nT at 17/0740 UTC while the solar wind speed slowly increased to around 780 km/s by late on 19 Aug as a polar connected, positive polarity CH HSS became geoeffective. By the end of the period, solar wind speeds decreased to near 650 km/s while total field values had decreased to 3 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet levels from 14-16 Aug, followed by quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels from 17-20 Aug.

Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.

(Click to see actual size)

Monthly and smoothed sunspot number chart

Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)

Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:

SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.

CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).

(Click to see actual size)

What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:

View of numbered sunspot regions and plages (if any)
Source: http://www.solarmonitor.org/.
(Click for large view)

Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC

SIDC Solar Disc with active regions and plages

Latest GOES 15 Image of the Sun

Latest GOES-15 Image of the Sun

STEREO IMAGES

What is coming

Current View

What was...

Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:

On 2017 Aug 23 1518Z: Bz: 4.5 nT
Bx: -0.6 nT | By: -2.9 nT | Total: 5.4 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC
Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.

This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind

Outlook:
(valid from 1230UT, 22 Aug 2017 until 24 Aug 2017)

22 Aug 2017 10.7-cm Flux: 087 / Ap: 027
23 Aug 2017 10.7-cm Flux: 088 / Ap: 010
24 Aug 2017 10.7-cm Flux: 087 / Ap: 007

Forecast:

Solar Flares:
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Geo-Disturbance:
Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)
Solar Proton Event:
Quiet

Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Active Region (AR) 2671 (McIntosh class: Fkc; Mag.type: Beta- Gamma) and AR 2672 (McIntosh class: Dao; Mag.type: Beta) produced three C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest flare was C3.0 flare peaking at 17:57 UT yesterday. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. There are no potentially geoeffective coronal holes on the Sun. More C-class flares are expected over the next 24 hours with some probability of M-class flares. Solar wind parameters are still under influences of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). During the past 24 hours solar wind speeds remained stable around 600 km/s with two brief increases till around 670 km/s (22:30 UT yesterday and 07 UT today). Total filed strength increased till 9nT at 02 UT today, simultaneously the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT. The interplanetary Kp index increased from 3 till 6 reaching moderate storm level (00-03 UT), minor storm level (Kp=5 during 03-06UT). Later Kp index returned to quiet conditions again. The local station at Dourbes reported values of up to K=4. Next two days active geomagnetic conditions can be expected, isolated episode of minor geomagnetic storm is not excluded. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 061, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

(Comments issued on 22 Aug 2017, 1259UT)

Space Weather and Propagation Forecast
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
and the Space Weather Prediction Center

Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)

Solar Forecast:

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

Geomagnetic Forecast:

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 August - 16 September 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity from Regions 2671 and 2672 from 21 Aug-02 Sep and again from 08-16 Sep when both regions return to the visible disk. Very low levels are expected from 03-07 Sep.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels from 21-30 Aug, 01-07 Sep, 11-13 Sep, and again from 15-16 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 21-22 Aug, 30 Aug-02 Sep, 08-09 Sep, and from 13-16 Sep with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 31 Aug, and 13-16 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Real-time foF2 map from IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service), Australian Space Weather Agency

Space Weather + Ham Radio Resources

Click on image to
view larger versions

The following images
are from SOHO

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Check out this amazing NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) video
showing plasma rain on the Sun!

Check out this amazing NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) video
showing a prominence the Sun:

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Additional Views of the Sun

Be sure to check the Date shown in each photo - is it today's date?
(click to enlarge)

Current Numbered Sunspots / MDI Magnetogram

Check out these books on Radio Propagation:

+ The New Shortwave Propagation Handbook (Paperback) - by George Jacobs, Theodore J. Cohen, R. B. Rose. The NEW Shortwave Progagation Handbook may well be the only book you'll need on the subject of ionospheric propagation! It is a "must read" for Radio Amateurs, Shortwave Listeners, and radio communicators of any type who need to make the most productive use of the radio spectrum, regardless of the time of day, the season of the year, or the state of the sunspot cycle. It will become your ever-present companion a the operating table as you master the art of shortwave radio progagation.

+ How Radio Signals Work (Paperback) - by Jim Sinclair. This book provides a basic understanding of the way radio signals work-without becoming bogged down with the technicalities. It covers all kinds of radio signal types--including mobile communications, short-wave, satellite, and microwave. No detailed knowledge of electronics or mathematics is required. A-Z coverage of radio signals including satellites, mobile communications, and short-wave radio. No math or electronics background necessary.

+ Introduction to RF Propagation (Hardcover) - by John S. Seybold. This book provides readers with a solid understanding of the concepts involved in the propagation of electromagnetic waves and of the commonly used modeling techniques. While many books cover RF propagation, most are geared to cellular telephone systems and, therefore, are limited in scope. This title is comprehensive-it treats the growing number of wireless applications that range well beyond the mobile telecommunications industry, including radar and satellite communications.

Check out these articles:

HOW-TO: How do you make your HF ham station work more efficiently? The ANTENNA is the key! - introduction to Antenna Modeling
HOW-TO: Is HF Propagation Reciprocal?
HOW-TO: De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and Modeling
REVIEW: An Amateur Radio Operator's Review of ACE-HF PRO version 2.05
REVIEW: A Shortwave Listening (SWLing) Review of ACE-HF PRO version 2.05
HOW-TO: Noise and Radio Signal Effectiveness; Modeling in ACE-HF Pro version 2.05

Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC

Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is
Copyright, 2017, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.

Last Update: January 04, 2017