Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.
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Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.
Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.
Planetary A-index (Ap): 3
| Planetary K-index (Kp): 2
Solar Wind: 528 km/s at 1.0 protons/cm3, Bz is 5.0 nT
(Oct 02, 2022 at 1602 UT)
X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [M8.7][0208Z 10/02] 24h hi [M8.7][0208Z 10/02]
What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)
Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.
If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:
Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
With Expected Ranges
At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:
Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)
Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge
Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011
Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)
Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011
Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?
Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal
The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications
More about Background X-rays
The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.
Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.
If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.
Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.
Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 19 - 25 September 2022
Solar activity reached moderate levels this week with three M-class flares observed during the period. Region 3102 (S25, L=298, class/area Eki/320 on 18 Sep) produced an M1.0/1n flare at 20/1122 UTC. Region 3107 (S25, L=113, class/area Fai/240 on 24 Sep) produced an M1.0 at 21/0702 UTC. This was followed by the largest event of the period, an M1.7/Sf at 23/1810 UTC from Region 3110 (N16, L=158, class/area Dhi/320 on 25 Sep). Associated with this event were Type II (est. 2453 km/s S.V.) and Type IV signatures. During the period, a total of 62 C-class and 3 M-class flares were recorded. In addition to Regions 3102, 3107 and 3110, C-class activity was also observed from Regions 3105 (S17, L=210, class/area Dki/490 on 22 Sep) and 3109 (N10, L=257, class/area Dro/040 on 23 Sep). Numerous CME signatures, off of both limbs, were observed in coronagraph imagery throughout the week, but none were determined to have Earth-directed components.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, although the 10 Mev proton flux was slightly elevated above background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 19-24 Sep and high levels on 25 Sep with a peak flux of 2,130 pfu observed at 25/1555 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity mostly ranged from quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period early on 24 September. Quiet to unsettled periods were observed on 19-20 September under weak, diminishing, negative polarity coronal hole high stream influence. Quiet levels were observed on 21 and 22 September, with the exception of an isolated unsettled period late on 22 September. Unsettled to isolated active conditions persisted on 24 and 25 September under weak, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream influence.
Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.
(Click to see actual size)
Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)
Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:
SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
(Click to see actual size)
What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:
Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC
What is coming
Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:
On 2022 Oct 02 1612Z: Bz: 5.4 nT
Bx: -2.6 nT | By: -2.5 nT | Total: 6.5 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.
This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind
Outlook: (valid from 1230UT, 02 Oct 2022 until 04 Oct 2022)
02 Oct 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 153 / Ap: 017
03 Oct 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 156 / Ap: 012
04 Oct 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 159 / Ap: 007
Solar Flares: M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) Geo-Disturbance: Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) Solar Proton Event: Quiet
Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Solar flaring activity was at high levels. The largest flares observed were an M5.8 and an M8.7 flare, peaking on October 1 at 20:10 UT and October 2 at 02:21UT, respectively. Both flares were associated with Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3110) which showed rapid flux emergence over the past day. C-class flares were also produced by NOAA AR 3111, NOAA AR 3112, NOAA AR 3113. NOAA AR 3112, near the north east limb, remains the largest and most complex region on disk. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for an X-class flare.
Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 September - 22 October 2022
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor to Moderate) flare activity on 26 September to 04 October and from 08-22 October due to current active regions on the visible disk and returning, active regions.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 26-28 September, 03-12 October and 22 October in response to CH HSS influences.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 27-28 September, 01-06 October, 16-17 October, with active levels possible on 01-05 October and 20-21 October. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are possible on 01-04 October as well. This enhanced activity is due to CH HSS influences.
Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC
Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is Copyright, 2021, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.