SunSpotWatch.com

Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.

If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:

Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values With Expected Ranges
YR/MO	Smoothed Sunspot Number Predicted/High/Low			Smoothed 10.7 cm Radio Flux Predicted/High/Low
2016 03	41.4	31.9	29.9	96.9	97.9	95.9
2016 04	39.4	32.5	28.5	96.1	97.1	95.1
2016 05	37.5	33.4	27.4	94.9	96.9	92.9
2016 06	36.6	35.3	25.3	93.2	96.2	90.2
2016 07	35.9	35.2	25.2	91.6	95.6	87.6
2016 08	35.4	36.0	24.0	90.3	94.3	86.3
2016 09	34.7	36.8	22.8	89.5	94.5	84.5
2016 10	33.5	37.0	23.0	88.9	94.9	82.9
2016 11	31.8	38.1	22.1	88.1	95.1	81.1
2016 12	30.1	39.5	21.5	87.8	95.8	79.8

To understand more about the Maximum Usable Frequencies, and related
science, please read the MUF Basics Page.

More about Background X-rays

The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.

Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.

If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.

Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.

Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.

Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.

(Click to see actual size)


Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)

Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:

SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.

CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).

(Click to see actual size)


What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:

View of numbered sunspot regions and plages (if any)
Source: http://www.solarmonitor.org/.
(Click for large view)



Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC

Latest GOES 15 Image of the Sun

This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind