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SunSpotWatch.com

Radio Propagation : Space Weather : Sunspot Cycle Information

a live reference resource site for solar and geomagnetic data and images

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Gain the on-air edge: This article explains how the ANTENNA is the key! -> Read this introduction to Antenna Modeling

STEREO 3D

X-ray Conditions (Flares) 5-min.

X-ray Conditions (Flares) 1-min.

Geomagnetic Conditions (Kp)

Satellite Environment Plot:

Main Propagation Menu:

+ Aurora Resources

How-To Articles:

- Is HF Propagation Reciprocal?
- De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and Modeling

Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.

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- Main NW7US Page
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This website is kept alive by Tomas (NW7US), out of "spare change" (which there's not always enough of), and, by the kind, helpful people who visit this website. Would you like to help me keep this site running 24/7? If you are able to help me keep this website up and running, please: help me keep this site running for everyone... click on this donation button:

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Other links of interest:

- PropNET - live propagation studies
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Comments? Please use the feedback form. I look forward to hearing your comments.

NW7US Update to CQ Magazine Last Minute Forecast
Updated: 20-May-2022 UTC

Day-to-Day Conditions Expected for May 2022

Propagation Index Days	(4)	(3)	(2)	(1)
Above Normal: 1-14,16,18-23,28-31	A	A	B	C
High Normal: 15,17,25-27	A	B	C	C-D
Low Normal: 24	B	C-B	C-D	D-E
Below Normal: No days	C	C-D	D-E	E
Disturbed: No days	C-D	D	E	E

Warnings/Alerts issued
in the last 24 hours, if any:
(Key: NOAA Scales)

[ live aurora display ]
[ auroral power maps ]

[ d-layer conditions ]

[ latest solar images 1 ]
[ latest solar images 2 ]
[ latest solar images 3 ]

[ active solar regions ]
[ current solar region image ]

[ What is a flare and its class? ]

Recent Space Environment Reports:

+ Reports of Solar & Geophysical Activity
+ Solar & Geophysical Activity Summaries

From the Space Environment Center:

Solar X-ray Flux

+ A 3 day plot of 5-minute solar X-ray flux values measured on the GOES 8 and 10 satellites.
+ A 6-hour 1-min Solar X-ray Flux plot

Satellite Environment Plot

[ Proton Flux ] [Electron Flux ]
[ GEOS Hp ] [ Estimated Kp ]

Additional Resources

+ SpaceW.com Aurora Network
+ D-Layer Absorption Conditions/Predictions
+ 160 Meter Propagation Forecast
+ Solar Physics Department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium, the official keepers of sunspot data.

Solar Activity Forecast
The Forecast of Solar Activity as well as Geomagnetic Activity

Probability of Flares and Proton Events
EVENT (Flare/Proton)	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs
M-class	40%	40%
X-class	05%	05%
Proton	05%	10%

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities
	Middle latitudes		High latitudes
	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs
Active	05%	10%	05%	10%
Minor Storm	05%	10%	05%	10%
Major-severe Storm	05%	10%	05%	10%

Solar Sunspot Cycle 24 Progress

Solar Cycle 24 Smoothed Sunspot Progress

Solar Cycle 24 Planetary A Index (Ap) Monthly Progress

Do you want the latest solar conditions sent to you as an RSS feed? Click:

You will need a newsreader for RSS/XML.

(Use http://hfradio.org/propsupport/prop.rss as your RSS channel url)

This page was rendered on 21-May-22 1024 UTC.
This page was first created as HFRadio.org in the mid 1990s, and morphed here in 1998, by Tomas David Hood (NW7US)

Current Sunspot Cycle 25 Activity ~ Space Weather ~ Shortwave Radio Propagation

[ How you can help this website ]

Sun Spots: 109 as of 05/20/2022 :: 10.7-cm Flux: 166 SFU
(SFU=Solar Flux Units)

Space Weather Overview Graphic from SWPC

30 Minutes of Dazzling Sun! Ultra-high Definition 4k View

An Intimate View of the Sun, Every Day of 2015 (Year 6 of SDO) UHD 4k

Watch Five Very Intense X-class X-ray Flares Erupt, Back-to-back!
(From the largest sunspot region in 20+ years...)

Check out the X2.7 X-ray Flare (May 5 2015) - 'Biggest' of 2015, so far

See highlights of the last five years of the Sun, as seen by SDO

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Latest Solar Images
Click on an image for full-sized view

D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) Global Map

Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.

Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.

Planetary A-index (Ap): 12 | Planetary K-index (Kp): 2
Solar Wind: 522 km/s at 2.0 protons/cm3, Bz is 0.0 nT
(May 21, 2022 at 1010 UT)

X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [M3.0][0735Z 05/20] 24h hi [M3.0][0735Z 05/20]

Background X-ray Level, Last Six Days

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Check out the current Aurora Oval and activity.

What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)

Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.

If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:

Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values With Expected Ranges
YR/MO	Smoothed Sunspot Number Predicted/High/Low			Smoothed 10.7 cm Radio Flux Predicted/High/Low

To understand more about the Maximum Usable Frequencies, and related
science, please read the MUF Basics Page.

Global HF Propagation Conditions
Global HF Propagation Conditions for 0400Z on 05 May, 2021
High Latitude: Normal
Middle Latitude: Normal
Low Latitude: Normal

Geomagnetic Latitude Ranges:
High: 60-90 degrees
Middle: 20-60 degrees
Low: 0-20 degrees

At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:

Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)

Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge

Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011

Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)

Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011

Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?

Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal

The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications

More about Background X-rays

The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.

Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.

If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.

Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.

Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 09 - 15 May 2022

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 3006 (S30, L=235, class/area=Eai/180 on 10 May) produced the strongest event of the period, an impulsive X1/1b at 10/1355 UTC. Type II and Type IV radio sweeps occurred near the event but wasn't clear if it was associated with activity near the E limb, which also produced an associated CME around the same time. The region only produced C-class activity after that event and slowly decayed over the next several days. Region 3007 (S24, L=184, class/area=Ekc/350 on 12 May) produced an M1/1n flare on 11/1648 UTC. While being the most complex region on the visible disk, it also only produced C-class activity through the end of the reporting period. The remaining spotted regions on the visible disk were relatively simple and produced only low-level X-ray activity.

Other activity included several M-flare events that were produced from activity from around both the E and W limbs. An M2 flare at 11/1858 UTC from the vicinity of Region 3004 (S16, L=324, class/area=Dkc/500 on 05 May), which had around the W limb two days before, produced a Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Ejecta from the several CMEs observed during the period were determined to be off the Sun-Earth line, with only the periphery of some of the CMEs having the potential to cause minor enhancements near Earth.

No proton events above S1 (Minor) were observed at geosynchronous orbit. An enhancement below the S1 threshold was observed after the M2 flare from old Region 3004 around the W limb. The maximum >10 MeV proton flux was 5 pfu, observed early on 12 May.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active conditions. Unsettled conditions that were observed on 09 May and 13 May were likely associated with weak enhancements from transient activity. Unsettled conditions on 14 May into active conditions on 15 May were associated with the onset CIR followed by influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from the mid 300's km/s to ~570 km/s on 15 May. The remainder of the reporting period was at quiet levels.

Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.

(Click to see actual size)

Monthly and smoothed sunspot number chart

Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)

Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:

SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.

CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).

(Click to see actual size)

What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:

View of numbered sunspot regions and plages (if any)
Source: http://www.solarmonitor.org/.
(Click for large view)

Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC

SIDC Solar Disc with active regions and plages

STEREO IMAGES

What is coming

Current View

What was...

Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:

On 2022 May 21 1020Z: Bz: 2.3 nT
Bx: -3.5 nT | By: 1.3 nT | Total: 4.4 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC
Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.

This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind

Outlook:
(valid from 1230UT, 20 May 2022 until 22 May 2022)

20 May 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 173 / Ap: 008
21 May 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 171 / Ap: 006
22 May 2022 10.7-cm Flux: 169 / Ap: 004

Forecast:

Solar Flares:
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Geo-Disturbance:
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Solar Proton Event:
Quiet

Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with two M-class flares detected as originating from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3014 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania group 14). The first one was an M1 that took place at 19 May 15:16 UT and the second an M3 today at 07:49 UT. There were also five C-class flares, three of which originated from NOAA AR 3014. More C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 3014, and there is a good chance of one or more M-class flares.

(Comments issued on 20 May 2022, 1230UT)

Space Weather and Propagation Forecast
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
and the Space Weather Prediction Center

Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)

Solar Forecast:

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

Geomagnetic Forecast:

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 May - 11 June 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low levels throughout most of the outlook period. With the exception of 21-22 May, regions associated with M-flare activity are expected to be present on the visible disk, carrying with them a slight chance for M-class activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels from 16-25 May and 05-11 Jun. High levels are expected on 26 May - 04 Jun and are associated with influence from anticipated CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 levels are likely on 24 May; active levels are likely on 16 May, 25-17 May, and 11 Jun; unsettled levels are likely on 17 May, 19-20 May, 28 May, and 10 Jun. All elevations in geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.

Real-time foF2 map from IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service), Australian Space Weather Agency

Space Weather + Ham Radio Resources

Click on image to
view larger versions

The following images
are from SOHO

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Check out this amazing NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) video
showing plasma rain on the Sun!

Check out this amazing NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) video
showing a prominence the Sun:

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Additional Views of the Sun

Be sure to check the Date shown in each photo - is it today's date?
(click to enlarge)

Current Numbered Sunspots / MDI Magnetogram

Check out these articles:

HOW-TO: How do you make your HF ham station work more efficiently? The ANTENNA is the key! - introduction to Antenna Modeling
HOW-TO: Is HF Propagation Reciprocal?
HOW-TO: De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and Modeling
REVIEW: An Amateur Radio Operator's Review of ACE-HF PRO version 2.05
REVIEW: A Shortwave Listening (SWLing) Review of ACE-HF PRO version 2.05
HOW-TO: Noise and Radio Signal Effectiveness; Modeling in ACE-HF Pro version 2.05

Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC

Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is
Copyright, 2021, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.

Last Update: December 20, 2021

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SunSpotWatch.com

Radio Propagation : Space Weather : Sunspot Cycle Information

Current Sunspot Cycle 25 Activity ~ Space Weather ~ Shortwave Radio Propagation