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SunSpotWatch.com

Radio Propagation : Space Weather : Sunspot Cycle Information

a live reference resource site for solar and geomagnetic data and images

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Gain the on-air edge: This article explains how the ANTENNA is the key! -> Read this introduction to Antenna Modeling

STEREO 3D

X-ray Conditions (Flares) 5-min.

X-ray Conditions (Flares) 1-min.

Geomagnetic Conditions (Kp)

Satellite Environment Plot:

Main Propagation Menu:

+ Aurora Resources

How-To Articles:

- Is HF Propagation Reciprocal?
- De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and Modeling

Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.

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This website is kept alive by Tomas (NW7US), out of "spare change" (which there's not always enough of), and, by the kind, helpful people who visit this website. Would you like to help me keep this site running 24/7? If you are able to help me keep this website up and running, please: help me keep this site running for everyone... click on this donation button:

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Other links of interest:

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Comments? Please use the feedback form. I look forward to hearing your comments.

NW7US Update to CQ Magazine Last Minute Forecast
Updated: 05-Mar-2023 UTC

Day-to-Day Conditions Expected for March 2023

Propagation Index Days	(4)	(3)	(2)	(1)
Above Normal: No days	A	A	B	C
High Normal: No days	A	B	C	C-D
Low Normal: No days	B	C-B	C-D	D-E
Below Normal: No days	C	C-D	D-E	E
Disturbed: No days	C-D	D	E	E

Warnings/Alerts issued
in the last 24 hours, if any:
(Key: NOAA Scales)

[ live aurora display ]
[ auroral power maps ]

[ d-layer conditions ]

[ latest solar images 1 ]
[ latest solar images 2 ]
[ latest solar images 3 ]

[ active solar regions ]
[ current solar region image ]

[ What is a flare and its class? ]

Recent Space Environment Reports:

+ Reports of Solar & Geophysical Activity
+ Solar & Geophysical Activity Summaries

From the Space Environment Center:

Solar X-ray Flux

+ A 3 day plot of 5-minute solar X-ray flux values measured on the GOES 8 and 10 satellites.
+ A 6-hour 1-min Solar X-ray Flux plot

Satellite Environment Plot

[ Proton Flux ] [Electron Flux ]
[ GEOS Hp ] [ Estimated Kp ]

Additional Resources

+ SpaceW.com Aurora Network
+ D-Layer Absorption Conditions/Predictions
+ 160 Meter Propagation Forecast
+ Solar Physics Department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium, the official keepers of sunspot data.

Solar Activity Forecast
The Forecast of Solar Activity as well as Geomagnetic Activity

Probability of Flares and Proton Events
EVENT (Flare/Proton)	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs
M-class	55%	55%
X-class	10%	10%
Proton	01%	01%

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities
	Middle latitudes		High latitudes
	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs
Active	01%	01%	01%	01%
Minor Storm	01%	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe Storm	01%	01%	01%	01%

Solar Sunspot Cycle 24 Progress

Solar Cycle 24 Smoothed Sunspot Progress

Solar Cycle 24 Planetary A Index (Ap) Monthly Progress

Do you want the latest solar conditions sent to you as an RSS feed? Click:

You will need a newsreader for RSS/XML.

(Use http://hfradio.org/propsupport/prop.rss as your RSS channel url)

This page was rendered on 05-Mar-23 2241 UTC.
This page was first created as HFRadio.org in the mid 1990s, and morphed here in 1998, by Tomas David Hood (NW7US)

Current Sunspot Cycle 25 Activity ~ Space Weather ~ Shortwave Radio Propagation

[ How you can help this website ]

Sun Spots: 122 as of 03/04/2023 :: 10.7-cm Flux: 180 SFU
(SFU=Solar Flux Units)

Space Weather Overview Graphic from SWPC

30 Minutes of Dazzling Sun! Ultra-high Definition 4k View

An Intimate View of the Sun, Every Day of 2015 (Year 6 of SDO) UHD 4k

Watch Five Very Intense X-class X-ray Flares Erupt, Back-to-back!
(From the largest sunspot region in 20+ years...)

Check out the X2.7 X-ray Flare (May 5 2015) - 'Biggest' of 2015, so far

See highlights of the last five years of the Sun, as seen by SDO

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Latest Solar Images
Click on an image for full-sized view

D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) Global Map

Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.

Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.

Planetary A-index (Ap): 24 | Planetary K-index (Kp):
Solar Wind: 583 km/s at 13.0 protons/cm3, Bz is -3.0 nT
(Mar 05, 2023 at 2227 UT)

X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [M5.2][1519Z 03/04] 24h hi [M5.2][1519Z 03/04]

Background X-ray Level, Last Six Days

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Check out the current Aurora Oval and activity.

What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)

Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.

If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:

Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values With Expected Ranges
YR/MO	Smoothed Sunspot Number Predicted/High/Low			Smoothed 10.7 cm Radio Flux Predicted/High/Low

To understand more about the Maximum Usable Frequencies, and related
science, please read the MUF Basics Page.

Global HF Propagation Conditions
Global HF Propagation Conditions for 0400Z on 05 May, 2021
High Latitude: Normal
Middle Latitude: Normal
Low Latitude: Normal

Geomagnetic Latitude Ranges:
High: 60-90 degrees
Middle: 20-60 degrees
Low: 0-20 degrees

At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:

Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)

Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge

Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011

Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)

Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011

Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?

Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal

The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications

More about Background X-rays

The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.

Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.

If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.

Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.

Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 20 - 26 February 2023

Solar activity reached high levels this week. A total of nine R1 (Minor) events and two R2 (Moderate) events were observed this period. Region 3229 (N26, L=34, class/area=Ekc/310 on 20 Feb) produced two significant flares which were followed by proton flux enhancements and subsequent Earth-directed CMEs. The first event was a long-duration M3/2b flare at 24/2030 UTC with Type-II (1,204 km/s) and Type-IV radio emissions. Shortly following the flare, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced, reaching a peak flux of 3 pfu observed at 24/2355 UTC, but did not exceed the event threshold. The associated CME arrived at Earth beginning at around 26/1845 UTC. The second flare of note from Region 3229 was a long-duration M6/3n flare at 25/1944 UTC with Type-II (528 km/s) radio emissions observed. Shortly following this second flare, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold at 25/2110 UTC, and reached a peak flux of 58 pfu at 26/0440 UTC. The partial-halo CME from the M6 flare was determined to have an Earth-directed component, and is expected to arrive late on 27/early on 28 Feb.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced late on 24/early on 25 Feb following an M3 flare at 24/2030 UTC from Region 3229. A peak flux of 3 pfu was observed at 24/2355 UTC before flux values slowly decreased to around 1 pfu. An additional enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed shortly following an M6 flare at 25/1944 UTC from Region 3229. This second proton enhancement exceeded the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold at 25/2110 UTC, and a peak flux of 58 pfu was observed at 26/0440 UTC. Proton flux values began decreasing over the latter half of 26 Feb, but remained near the 10 pfu event threshold.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 20 Feb, and quiet to active on 21 Feb, in response to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions prevailed on 22 Feb. G1 (Minor) storm conditions were observed on 23 Feb due to the passage of a CME. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed over 24-25 Feb, with negative polarity CH HSS influences observed on 25 Feb. G2 (Moderate) storm conditions were observed late on 26 Feb due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influences as well as the arrival of the 24 Feb CME. An interplanetary shock (34 nT as measured by Fredericksburg magnetometer) associated with the arrival of the 24 Feb CME was observed at 26/1845 UTC in solar wind data. Following the shock, total magnetic field strength values increased to 21 nT and the Bz component reached -18 nT, solar wind speeds increased to a peak of 756 km/s, and solar wind density increased to 32 ppcm.

Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.

(Click to see actual size)

Monthly and smoothed sunspot number chart

Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)

Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:

SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.

CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).

(Click to see actual size)

What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:

View of numbered sunspot regions and plages (if any)
Source: http://www.solarmonitor.org/.
(Click for large view)

Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC

SIDC Solar Disc with active regions and plages

STEREO IMAGES

What is coming

Current View

What was...

Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:

On 2023 Mar 05 2153Z: Bz: -1.3 nT
Bx: 4.6 nT | By: -3.2 nT | Total: 5.8 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC
Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.

This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind

Outlook:
(valid from 1230UT, 05 Mar 2023 until 07 Mar 2023)

05 Mar 2023 10.7-cm Flux: 182 / Ap: 012
06 Mar 2023 10.7-cm Flux: 182 / Ap: 012
07 Mar 2023 10.7-cm Flux: 182 / Ap: 007

Forecast:

Solar Flares:
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Geo-Disturbance:
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Solar Proton Event:
Quiet

Comment from the SIDC (RWC Belgium): The solar flaring activity was at higher levels of the past 24 hours: Two M-class flare occurred (M5.3-class and M1.3-class) with a peaking time at 15:57 UTC on March 04, and 02:25 UTC on March 5 in the most complex region on disc, NOAA active region 3234 (with a magnetic complexity of beta-gamma-delta). NOAA active regions 3242, 3243 and 3238 also produced C-class flares. The other region on the disc did not show any significant flaring activity. NOAA active region 3234 is currently located on the North-West the limb of the visible disc seen from Earth and about the rotated over the disc, however flaring activity in this region may still be visible from Earth. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain mostly at levels with C-class flares, with possible isolated M-class flare or even X-class flare.

(Comments issued on 05 Mar 2023, 1230UT)

Space Weather and Propagation Forecast
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
and the Space Weather Prediction Center

Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)

Solar Forecast:

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

Geomagnetic Forecast:

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 February - 25 March 2023

Solar activity is expected to be elevated throughout the outlook period. A number of regions with a history of producing M-class and X-class flares are expected to return and transit the solar disk over the course of the next 27 days.

The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 25/2110 UTC decreased below event threshold at around 27/0000 UTC, but the S1 (Minor) solar radiation warning remains in effect as flux values remain elevated. The anticipated arrival of the 25 Feb CME late on 27 Feb is likely to cause an additional proton flux enhancement as particles are accelerated ahead of the CME. No other proton events are expected during the outlook period, barring additional significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to moderate on 27-28 Feb, and 14-25 Mar. High flux levels are likely on 01-13 Mar following enhanced solar wind conditions and elevated geomagnetic field activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G3 (Strong) storm levels on 27 Feb, and G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 28 Feb, due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influence and the anticipated arrival of the 25 Feb CME. G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 06 Mar due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions are likely on 01, 05, 07, 15, and 25 Mar due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Real-time foF2 map from IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service), Australian Space Weather Agency

Space Weather + Ham Radio Resources

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view larger versions

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are from SOHO

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Additional Views of the Sun

Be sure to check the Date shown in each photo - is it today's date?
(click to enlarge)

Current Numbered Sunspots / MDI Magnetogram

Check out these articles:

HOW-TO: How do you make your HF ham station work more efficiently? The ANTENNA is the key! - introduction to Antenna Modeling
HOW-TO: Is HF Propagation Reciprocal?
HOW-TO: De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and Modeling
REVIEW: An Amateur Radio Operator's Review of ACE-HF PRO version 2.05
REVIEW: A Shortwave Listening (SWLing) Review of ACE-HF PRO version 2.05
HOW-TO: Noise and Radio Signal Effectiveness; Modeling in ACE-HF Pro version 2.05

Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC

Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is
Copyright, 2022, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.

Last Update: November 21, 2022

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SunSpotWatch.com

Radio Propagation : Space Weather : Sunspot Cycle Information

Current Sunspot Cycle 25 Activity ~ Space Weather ~ Shortwave Radio Propagation